David Cormack
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The aftermath
🕑 Added 2020-10-25 01:31:57 +0000 UTCI've needed some space from thinking about politics and the election. I had so many media spots and interviews and columns that I didn't get much time for me, and my family. So, I'm sorry if you missed me.
It was an election result that was ultimately a bit boring, but an election that was anything but.
Heading into Saturday night, I think the only question left unresolved was whether Labour would get a majority or not. The only other question I'd been thinking about was whether the Greens would get over 5%. In retrospect this was dumb, but there were some historical trends the Greens were up against.
- First off is the idea that no support party has ever received more than 5% in an election after going into government.
- Then there was the idea that the Greens over-polled in the lead-up to an election then under-performed.
- Finally, there was the belief that the Greens only improved when Labour was weak.
All three of these were chucked out the window.
I've checked the polling over the entire three-year term, and of the polling done deliberately for the public (so excluding UMR), only two polls had the Greens under five over the whole three-year period.
Pretty impressive stuff. And the Greens also operated under a very different campaign strategy to previous MMP partners. While others have historically tried to distance themself from the major party, the Greens hugged Labour and said, "didn't we work well together?".
Smart stuff, especially considering how goddamn popular the Prime Minister is.
NZ First went the other way and was punished for it. That said, of the 47 polls that Wikipedia records as having occurred over the last term of government, NZF only polled above five in 11 of them.
I actually said way back in a podcast I took part immediately following the 2017 election that while everyone was saying NZF was one of the major winners, being in the kingmaker position, this would not serve them long-term. I argued that as soon as Winston chose either side, he'd lose a bunch of his supporters who wanted him to go with the others. And I said it would be a hard road back. And so, it was.
The election night
The night itself was crazy. I was doing RNZ's coverage and we were set up with updating spreadsheets showing us electorate results. The group of us panellists spent the night going "holy shit have you seen what's going on in..." as electorate after electorate turned red.
I'd been having a chat with a friend prior to the night and he'd said that in every landslide there was always a major upset in an electorate. Ilam looked like being it. But then there were so many more.
It was a night that devastated National.
Yes, they were a shambles, but also, I have a wee bit of sympathy for Judith. The caucus went to her begging for her to be leader in an almost hopeless position. She was asked to save the furniture. And then party started leaking against her almost immediately.
Yes, she ran an, at times, baffling campaign, but that doesn't excuse how the caucus treated her.
But I think there was nothing she could have done. In the end, the country looked at Jacinda Ardern and felt safe. A smaller number looked at the Greens and thought "New Zealand could be better", and so that's what we've got.
I'm absolutely gutted that Labour has a majority. I desperately wanted the Greens to be needed so that Labour would be dragged left. With Labour now having a majority I'm deeply sceptical that we'll see much of a left-wing government. Maybe some justice reform, and possibility a bit in welfare?
But I'll spend the next three years working hard to call Labour our and hold them to higher left-wing ideals. I hope you'll join me.
