David Cormack
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Who's rallying around the flag?
🕑 Added 2020-07-05 05:55:54 +0000 UTCThe last reputable poll we had before we went into lockdown was on 1 News in mid February. In it National was on 46 points and Labour was on 41. NZFirst on 3.3, the Greens on 5 and ACT on 1.7
Then COVID happened.
Both television networks waited until after lockdown and after the budget had been delivered to poll again. Then we got two in a week and boy howdy were they good for Labour. TV3 which is usually the better one for Labour had them on 56.5%, National on 30.6, NZF on 2.7, the Greens on 5.5 and ACT on 1.8.
Then 1 News had one a few nights later and it was even better for Labour. They were on 59%, National 29%, NZF 2.9%, the Greens 4.7%, and ACT 2.2%.
All the right wing commentators came rushing out to say that what we were seeing was a classic "rally around the flag" phenomenon. Which was a term coined when George W. Bush's approval ratings went stratospheric following 9/11. It's the theory that in times of crisis we rally around the incumbents. There is some merit to it as we can see if we look overseas.
Donald Trump's approval ratings went from 43 approve, 50 disapprove pre-pandemic, to 49 approve, 47 disapprove in the middle of the pandemic.
Boris Johnson's Conservatives hit 54% (after getting 44% in the general election) in the middle of the pandemic. Funnily enough Scott Morrison's Coalition saw the smallest bump going from 49% in a two party vote to 51%.
What we've seen around the world is a reversion - in fact in some instances its gotten worse, a whole lot worse, for the incumbents.
Donald Trump is currently at 41 approve, 57 disapprove. The Tories in the UK have shed 13% to drop back to 41%, two points ahead of Keir Starmer's Labour Party. Scott Morrison has held his 51% - 49% lead.
Meanwhile, in our most recent polling, which saw National introduce its new boringly uninspiring and planless leader, Labour was on 50%, National 38%, the Greens 6%, NZF 1.8% and ACT on 3.1%.
So in short:
- Donald Trump has overall lost two points in his approval since the pandemic.
- Boris Johnson's Conservatives has lost 8 points since the pandemic, while Labour gained 7.
- Scott Morrison's Coalition has gained two points, while Labor lost two.
And in New Zealand?
Labour has gained 9 points and National has lost 8. The Greens went up 1 point and NZF gave ACT 1.5%.
So while there may have been a rally around the flag effect, we've seen the parties in New Zealand that benefited from a "COVID bounce" maintain a lot of those gains while other incumbents around the world are now worse off.
There could be a number of reasons for this.
- New Zealand has the only (barely) left of centre Government of the ones I've highlighted that tend to do well on health issues.
- We are also the only MMP country.
- Also our opposition replaced an angry and passionate opposition leader with a boring and uninspiring one.
- Labour is also a first-term government, which is wildly different to the UK where it seems like the Tories have been in since 1875.
Whatever the reason, it's interesting that we did rally around the flag, but we still seem to be hanging around it.
