David Cormack
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Dance of the desperates
🕑 Added 2020-04-10 03:42:36 +0000 UTCIt's week three of the lockdown and people in New Zealand are looking towards a post-lockdown world, while politicans fret over polling.
For many that means thinking about what sort of income - if any - they'll be able to get. For politicians it means an election that is coming their way fast.
Already we've seen Paula Bennett from National and Winston Peters from New Zealand First say that the election should be delayed. Which is utter nonsense. We're still five months from the election date and there is no reason to delay for now.
Winston said he argued for a November date from the beginning which is accurate as confirmed to me by senior Labour folk. Why he'd admit to losing a debate is beyond me.
But it's no surprise that National and NZFirst are keen to delay the election. The latest leaked internal polling has National getting wiped out at around 35 per cent, while NZFirst are at 5.
The Greens were also at 5, while ACT was at 2.2 and Labour was at 49.
In private conversations with Green MPs, they're dreadfully concerned that Covid-19 could claim them as a scalp.
So it's only ACT and Labour who would be keen on an election sooner rather than later.
Some in Labour have speculated about goading Winston into collapsing the Government so they can go to the polls early. This would suit them, as the glow of Jacinda Ardern's phenomenal and widely applauded leadership would still be fresh, while the economic shitness that is going to pummel many won't be.
National think they're a much stronger chance if the election is delayed as economic problems start to bite. The big flaw in their thinking is that they're still hampered by a dreadfully poor leader.
National thinks it can pitch itself as the party to see us through the recovery. A sort of tagline like "Labour got us through the health crisis, now let us fix your wallets." They'll fall back on their stewardship of New Zealand through the GFC and Christchurch earthquakes.
The problem with that is that was John Key, and this National is Simon Bridges. Nobody in Simon's kitchen cabinet has been tested by a crisis before whereas Labour can point to having seen us through a terrorist attack, a volcanic eruption and now a global pandemic. One of those events alone would be enough for a leader, for Jacinda Ardern to have clocked all three in a truly inspiring way means that they must be at the shortest of odds to be the biggest party after the election.
The big question is whether Labour will be in a position to govern. If the Greens and NZFirst both don't make it, and National + ACT is more than Labour then we'll see a flip of the 2017 election with the biggest party locked out of government, and the sickening potential of Prime Minister Simon Bridges.
NZFirst's behaviour over the course of this term in blocking Labour at many junctions has meant that the Greens are now the favoured option by Labour. Many in Labour see the Greens as far easier to control.
This may mean chucking them a bone. It's unlikely to come in the form of an electorate seat, but expect to see Jacinda Ardern doing public events with James Shaw. And expect to see James gratefully take them.
Comments
Michael J Tavares
There are of course many in Labour who’d love to see a Greens exit from parliament, feeling that they “own” all left wing votes, (though not as strongly as Australian Labor and not as aggressively) our PM is smart enough to know that she needs coalition partners, but both labour and Greens have spoken out so strongly against teapot arrangements it’d be like the taxpayer union taking taxpayer money for there to be anyKind of thing like that!
Michael J Tavares
Remember that before the change in Labour leadership the Greens were polling very high, and it was a popular likeable Jacinda which grew Labour’s vote, grew it in a lo areas, but the soft easy pickings were people who would otherwise be swing voters between Labour and Greens. A even more popular Jacinda, and she has earned it, risks taking even more of the soft Green to Labour vote, and potentially suppressing Greens below five percent, like you said, locking labour out of govt despite being the largest party.
Brian Dixon
Without the Greens in the next government, we will see Labour squander its chances to actually *transform* NZ through being too afraid of electoral consequences if they upset the centre and right.
